차입 증가 → 이자부담 → 수익성 악화
Critical부채가 +20.2% 늘며 이자보상배율이 2.9x에서 2.4x로 하락했다. ROE도 13.8%에서 13.3%로 낮아져 차입 부담이 수익성을 누르고 있다.
Evidence
부채 YoY +20.2%이자보상배율 2.9x→2.4xROE 13.8%→13.3%
KCTC
A009070 · KOSPI₩3,770+6.20%
2026-08-03 closeKCTC — pricey right now, or cheap? And what signals are flashing today?
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AI Insight
Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly
Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction
Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (Korea market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)
Last 30 sessions
648 picks
Next-day win rate
49.2%
Avg next-day
-0.17%
vs market
+0.72%p
Beat the market on 62.1% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).
Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-31 0%07-30 66.7%07-29 0%07-28 45%07-27 20%07-25 36.4%07-21 55.6%07-20 53.8%07-16 53.3%07-15 50%07-14 71.4%07-13 31.2%
This stock has not flashed this signal recently — the record above is the signal’s own, not this stock’s.
Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.
Valuation Grades
Relative to 40 운송 peers · not investment advice
Valuation in its own history
PER 4.4 · PBR 0.38 — own history (2000-01~) percentiles 90/100 · 80/100
PER90/100
PBR80/100
Higher indicates lower valuation relative to its history (based on earnings and book yields).
Earnings percentiles can fluctuate for cyclical companies (including loss periods), so the book basis is shown alongside. Companies with large share buybacks can have structurally high PBR. Factual information, not investment advice.
Annual dividend
Split-adjusted annual DPS history and available grade axes
Paid 34 consecutive years · Raised 2 consecutive years · Yield 1.99% (based on 2025 payment of 75원) · 3-year growth +7.7%
Per-share amount adjusted for splits and capital reductions · Factual information, not investment advice.
Financial safety
Reference indicatorAs of 2024Grey zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 2.07
Distress
Grey
Safe
- Altman Z''
- 2.07
- Beneish M-Score
- -2.51
- Sloan accrual
- -3.46%
No statistical flag
부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Why has this company moved this way?
Auditable observations with the original numeric evidence.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score
4/9Moderate
Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.
Financial improvement score4/9
Profitability
- Positive ROAPass
- Positive OCFPass
- Improving ΔROANot passed
- Accruals (OCF > net income)Pass
Leverage & liquidity
- Lower debtNot passed
- Higher current ratioPass
- No new sharesNot passed
Efficiency
- Higher gross marginNot passed
- Higher asset turnoverNot passed
Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사
Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Industry structure
KRAs of 2026-08-03운송
This stock is in 운송: revenue rank 17 of 40, share 0.8%.
17 / 400.8%revenue share
Who dominates this industry?
- 1현대글로비스26.2%
- 2대한항공16.5%
- 3CJ대한통운11.2%
- 4HMM10.8%
- 5아시아나항공7.7%
- 6KCTC0.8%
Concentration
DistributedCR3 53.9%HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.
Polarization
MixedConsistentPolarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.
Margin lens
- IQR%p
- 9.72
- Direction
- 확대
- Level
- 보통
- Years
- 6
Value lens
- P90/P10
- 12.2
- Median P/B
- 0.7
- Level
- 넓음
- n
- 39
Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)
Factual information, not investment advice.
Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions
Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.
Base metrics
- Operating margin
- 4.5%
- Interest coverage
- 2.4x
- Return on equity (ROE)
- 8.7%
Operating margin −5pp
Operating lossInterest coverageBase 2.4x adverse case -0.3x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 8.7% adverse case -7.3%
Revenue −15%
TolerableInterest coverageBase 2.4x adverse case 2x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 8.7% adverse case 5.7%
Interest rate +2pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 2.4x adverse case 1.5x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 8.7% adverse case 4.5%
Interest coverage limit
Current margin 2.6ppInterest coverage limit at an operating margin of 1.9%
Interest expense coverage threshold
Financials at a glance
KCTC's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.
Who held it · filings
Filed recordA historical record from curated-guru 13F filings and DART 5%+ major-holding disclosures.
US 13F는 분기 공시이며 최대 45일 뒤 제출될 수 있습니다.
5%+ major-holding disclosures
- 박정석23.32%2025-06-05 · 증감 +23.32%p
- 이중호6.41%2025-12-18 · 증감 +6.41%p
Recent filings
KCTC's latest filings on Korea's DART. Open a headline for a reference summary and the original.
Source: DART (Korea electronic disclosure)
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