차입 증가 → 이자부담 → 수익성 악화
Critical부채가 +5.5% 늘며 이자보상배율이 16.5x에서 7.1x로 하락했다. ROE도 17.5%에서 8.9%로 낮아져 차입 부담이 수익성을 누르고 있다.
Evidence
부채 YoY +5.5%이자보상배율 16.5x→7.1xROE 17.5%→8.9%
MGP Ingredients
MGPI-US · Nasdaq$17.70-0.23%
2026-07-31 closeMGP Ingredients — pricey right now, or cheap? And what signals are flashing today?
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AI Insight
Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly
Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction
Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (US market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)
Last 30 sessions
759 picks
Next-day win rate
58.8%
Avg next-day
+0.55%
vs market
+0.45%p
Beat the market on 57.6% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).
Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-30 27.3%07-29 30.8%07-28 11.1%07-27 50%07-24 28.6%07-23 44.4%07-22 50%07-21 60%07-20 33.3%07-17 37.5%07-16 16.7%07-15 50%
This stock has not flashed this signal recently — the record above is the signal’s own, not this stock’s.
Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.
Valuation Grades
Relative to 126 필수소비재 peers · not investment advice
Valuation in its own history
PER 11.02 · PBR 0.46 — own history (2000-01~) percentiles 86/100 · 90/100
PER86/100
PBR90/100
Higher indicates lower valuation relative to its history (based on earnings and book yields).
Earnings percentiles can fluctuate for cyclical companies (including loss periods), so the book basis is shown alongside. Companies with large share buybacks can have structurally high PBR. Factual information, not investment advice.
Annual dividend
Split-adjusted annual DPS history and available grade axes
Paid 16 consecutive years · Raised 0 consecutive years · Yield 2.71% (based on 2025 payment of $0.48) · 3-year growth +0.0%
Per-share amount adjusted for splits and capital reductions · Factual information, not investment advice.
Financial safety
Reference indicatorAs of 2024Safe zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 5.31
Distress
Grey
Safe
- Altman Z''
- 5.31
- Beneish M-Score
- -2.73
- Sloan accrual
- -4.81%
No statistical flag
부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Why has this company moved this way?
Auditable observations with the original numeric evidence.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score
6/9Moderate
Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.
Financial improvement score6/9
Profitability
- Positive ROAPass
- Positive OCFPass
- Improving ΔROANot passed
- Accruals (OCF > net income)Pass
Leverage & liquidity
- Lower debtNot passed
- Higher current ratioPass
- No new sharesPass
Efficiency
- Higher gross marginPass
- Higher asset turnoverNot passed
Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사
Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Forensic signals
Anomaly and structural signals observed in the financial statements.
Margin trendWarning
영업이익률 악화 (17.8% → 10.6%, -7.2%p). 통계적 정황 신호이며 회계부정 단정이 아닙니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Industry structure
USAs of 2026-08-03필수소비재
This stock is in 필수소비재: revenue rank 81 of 120, share 0%.
81 / 1200%revenue share
Who dominates this industry?
- 1WMT-US32.8%
- 2Kroger7.1%
- 3Pepsico4.4%
- 4Archer Daniels Midland4.1%
- 5Procter & Gamble4.1%
- 6MGP Ingredients0%
Concentration
DistributedCR3 44.2%HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.
Polarization
MixedConsistentPolarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.
Margin lens
- IQR%p
- 9.77
- Direction
- 확대
- Level
- 보통
- Years
- 9
Value lens
- P90/P10
- 19.2
- Median P/B
- 1.74
- Level
- 넓음
- n
- 104
Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)
Factual information, not investment advice.
Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions
Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.
Base metrics
- Operating margin
- 10.6%
- Interest coverage
- 7.1x
- Return on equity (ROE)
- 4.2%
Operating margin −5pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 7.1x adverse case 3.7x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 4.2% adverse case 3.4%
Revenue −15%
TolerableInterest coverageBase 7.1x adverse case 6x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 4.2% adverse case 6.3%
Interest rate +2pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 7.1x adverse case 3.4x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 4.2% adverse case 6.3%
Interest coverage limit
Current margin 9.1ppInterest coverage limit at an operating margin of 1.5%
Interest expense coverage threshold
Financials at a glance
MGP Ingredients's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.
Connections
AI-extracted related companies · for reference
Suppliers
Customers
Brown-FormanPrice comovement r=0.57 (1 year)DiageoPernod RicardSazeracBeam SuntoryConstellation BrandsPrice comovement r=0.51 (1 year)General MillsPrice comovement r=0.33 (1 year)Kellogg
Competitors
IngredionPrice comovement r=0.33 (1 year)CargillParker-Migliorini InternationalThe AndersonsPrice comovement r=0.31 (1 year)
Recent filings
Filings for overseas stocks are on the way. For now we cover Korean stocks only.
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