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Microsoft

MSFT-US · Nasdaq
$464.72+3.02%
2026-07-31 close

Microsoft — pricey right now, or cheap? And what signals are flashing today?

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7 gurus reporting 13F holdings — David Tepper, Bridgewater (founded by Ray Dalio), Bill Ackman, Andreas Halvorsen, George Soros, Chase Coleman, Philippe Laffont
AI Insight

Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly

Why this signalSignal guide

Moving-average alignment
No

No active signal.

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Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction

Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (US market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)

Last 30 sessions
759 picks
Next-day win rate
58.8%
Avg next-day
+0.55%
vs market
+0.45%p

Beat the market on 57.6% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).

Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-30 27.3%07-29 30.8%07-28 11.1%07-27 50%07-24 28.6%07-23 44.4%07-22 50%07-21 60%07-20 33.3%07-17 37.5%07-16 16.7%07-15 50%
This stock has not flashed this signal recently — the record above is the signal’s own, not this stock’s.

Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.

Valuation Grades

Relative to 377 소프트웨어 peers · not investment advice

Pro unlocks the composite grade, 5 factors and sector rank · ₩19,900/mo

Valuation in its own history

PER 34.07 · PBR 10.1 — own history (2000-01~) percentiles 37/100 · 31/100

PER37/100
PBR31/100

Higher indicates lower valuation relative to its history (based on earnings and book yields).

Earnings percentiles can fluctuate for cyclical companies (including loss periods), so the book basis is shown alongside. Companies with large share buybacks can have structurally high PBR. Factual information, not investment advice.

Annual dividend

Split-adjusted annual DPS history and available grade axes

Annual dividend per share chart2003: $0.2420032004: $3.162005: $0.322006: $0.372007: $0.412008: $0.462009: $0.522010: $0.5520102011: $0.682012: $0.832013: $0.972014: $1.152015: $1.2920152016: $1.472017: $1.592018: $1.722019: $1.892020: $2.0920202021: $2.302022: $2.542023: $2.792024: $3.082025: $3.40$3.402025
Annual dividend (per share · split-adjusted) · as of 2025
Consistency
A-
Growth
A-
Yield
D
Safety
A
Reference indicatorView observed cut rates

Paid 23 consecutive years · Raised 20 consecutive years · Yield 0.73% (based on 2025 payment of $3.40) · 3-year growth +10.2%

Per-share amount adjusted for splits and capital reductions · Factual information, not investment advice.

Financial safety

Reference indicatorAs of 2025
Safe zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 4.48
Distress
Grey
Safe
The marker shows the current Z'' value within the displayed zones.
Altman Z''
4.48
Beneish M-Score
-2.57

No statistical flag

Sloan accrual
-5.55%

부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Why has this company moved this way?

Auditable observations with the original numeric evidence.

매출 성장 + 마진 확대 + FCF 양수

Positive

매출이 +14.9% 성장하면서 영업이익률이 44.6%에서 45.3%로 확대되었다. FCF도 양수를 유지하여 질적 성장이 확인된다.

Evidence

매출 YoY +14.9%영업이익률 44.6%→45.3%FCF 200,713

Factual information, not investment advice.

Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score

6/9Moderate

Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.

Financial improvement score6/9

Profitability

  • Positive ROAPass
  • Positive OCFPass
  • Improving ΔROANot passed
  • Accruals (OCF > net income)Pass

Leverage & liquidity

  • Lower debtPass
  • Higher current ratioPass
  • No new sharesPass

Efficiency

  • Higher gross marginNot passed
  • Higher asset turnoverNot passed

Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사

Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Industry structure

USAs of 2026-08-03

소프트웨어

This stock is in 소프트웨어: revenue rank 2 of 356, share 15.6%.

2 / 35615.6%revenue share

Who dominates this industry?

  1. 1Alphabet Class A19.3%
  2. 2Microsoft15.6%
  3. 3Meta Platforms Class A9.1%
  4. 4Accenture Class A3.8%
  5. 5International Business Machines3.5%

Concentration

DistributedCR3 44%
HHI 776356 revenue members

HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.

Polarization

Winner-take-all deepeningConsistent

Polarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.

Margin lens

IQR%p
27.4
Direction
확대
Level
넓음
Years
24

Value lens

P90/P10
26.7
Median P/B
4.06
Level
넓음
n
304

Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)

Factual information, not investment advice.

Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions

Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.

Base metrics

Operating margin
45.3%
Interest coverage
53.5x
Return on equity (ROE)
29.6%

Operating margin −5pp

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 53.5x adverse case 47.6x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 29.6% adverse case 32.3%

Revenue −15%

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 53.5x adverse case 45.5x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 29.6% adverse case 30.9%

Interest rate +2pp

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 53.5x adverse case 16.2x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 29.6% adverse case 34.8%

Interest coverage limit

Current margin 44.4pp

Interest coverage limit at an operating margin of 0.8%

Interest expense coverage threshold

Financials at a glance

Microsoft's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.

Who held it · filings

Filed record

A historical record from curated-guru 13F filings and DART 5%+ major-holding disclosures.

US 13F는 분기 공시이며 최대 45일 뒤 제출될 수 있습니다.

Curated gurus reporting this holding

A curated subset of well-known investors — not the full institutional ownership.

  • Bridgewater Associates1,084,979주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
  • Pershing Square Capital Management5,654,078주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
  • Soros Fund Management211,966주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
  • Appaloosa90,000주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
  • Tiger Global Management2,500,000주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
  • Viking Global Investors2,309,446주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
  • Coatue Management2,480,017주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주

Other stocks held by the same investors

A filing-based shared-holder record, not investment advice.

Connections

AI-extracted related companies · for reference

Customers
OpenAIActivision Blizzard
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📦 ETFs holding this stock

by weight · top-10 constituents basis

Passive money holding this stock ≈ $407.3B(lower bound — top-10 basis, not a forecast)

Factual holdings info from daily disclosures — not a recommendation.

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Recent filings

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