운전자본 팽창 → 현금 고갈 → 유동성 위기
Warning순운전자본이 +46.1% 팽창하며 현금이 묶이고 있다. 영업CF/순이익 비율이 -110%로 이익 대비 현금 회수가 부족하고, 유동비율도 0.77에서 0.77로 하락했다.
Evidence
순운전자본 YoY +46.1%영업CF/순이익 -110%유동비율 0.77→0.77
Kolon
A002020 · KOSPI₩23,100+8.45%
2026-08-03 closeKolon — pricey right now, or cheap? And what signals are flashing today?
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AI Insight
Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly
Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction
Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (Korea market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)
Last 30 sessions
648 picks
Next-day win rate
49.2%
Avg next-day
-0.17%
vs market
+0.72%p
Beat the market on 62.1% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).
Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-31 0%07-30 66.7%07-29 0%07-28 45%07-27 20%07-25 36.4%07-21 55.6%07-20 53.8%07-16 53.3%07-15 50%07-14 71.4%07-13 31.2%
This stock flashed this signal 3 times over the last ~2 years (see the signal history below for each date).
Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.
Valuation Grades
Relative to 72 상사,자본재 peers · not investment advice
Valuation in its own history
PER 1.71 · PBR 0.18 — own history (2000-01~) percentiles 91/100 · 84/100
PER91/100
PBR84/100
Higher indicates lower valuation relative to its history (based on earnings and book yields).
Earnings percentiles can fluctuate for cyclical companies (including loss periods), so the book basis is shown alongside. Companies with large share buybacks can have structurally high PBR. Factual information, not investment advice.
Annual dividend
Split-adjusted annual DPS history and available grade axes
Paid 17 consecutive years · Raised 0 consecutive years · Yield 2.38% (based on 2025 payment of 550원) · 3-year growth +0.0%
Per-share amount adjusted for splits and capital reductions · Factual information, not investment advice.
Financial safety
Reference indicatorAs of 2024Distress zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 0.19
Distress
Grey
Safe
- Altman Z''
- 0.19
- Beneish M-Score
- -2.00
- Sloan accrual
- 5.07%
No statistical flag
부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Why has this company moved this way?
Auditable observations with the original numeric evidence.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score
4/9Moderate
Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.
Financial improvement score4/9
Profitability
- Positive ROAPass
- Positive OCFNot passed
- Improving ΔROAPass
- Accruals (OCF > net income)Not passed
Leverage & liquidity
- Lower debtPass
- Higher current ratioNot passed
- No new sharesPass
Efficiency
- Higher gross marginNot passed
- Higher asset turnoverNot passed
Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사
Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Forensic signals
Anomaly and structural signals observed in the financial statements.
Margin trendWarning
영업외손익 급변 (영업이익 대비 61% 규모 변동) — 일회성 손익 주의. 통계적 정황 신호이며 회계부정 단정이 아닙니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Industry structure
KRAs of 2026-08-03상사,자본재
This stock is in 상사,자본재: revenue rank 13 of 71, share 1.6%.
13 / 711.6%revenue share
Who dominates this industry?
- 1SK33.6%
- 2CJ11.8%
- 3삼성물산11.4%
- 4포스코인터내셔널8.7%
- 5두산4.9%
- 6코오롱1.6%
Concentration
ModerateCR3 56.7%HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.
Polarization
MixedConsistentPolarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.
Margin lens
- IQR%p
- 11.07
- Direction
- 확대
- Level
- 보통
- Years
- 6
Value lens
- P90/P10
- 11.6
- Median P/B
- 1.26
- Level
- 넓음
- n
- 57
Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)
Factual information, not investment advice.
Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions
Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.
Base metrics
- Operating margin
- 2.7%
- Interest coverage
- 0.9x
- Return on equity (ROE)
- 10.3%
Operating margin −5pp
Operating lossInterest coverageBase 0.9x adverse case -0.7x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 10.3% adverse case -19.5%
Revenue −15%
Interest coverage riskInterest coverageBase 0.9x adverse case 0.8x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 10.3% adverse case -2.7%
Interest rate +2pp
Interest coverage riskInterest coverageBase 0.9x adverse case 0.6x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 10.3% adverse case -7.8%
Interest coverage limit
Already below the limit by 0.3ppInterest coverage limit at an operating margin of 3.1%
Interest expense coverage threshold
Key suppliers · Annual report
Annual reportDART · 2026-03-23Suppliers disclosed by the company in its 2026-03-23 annual report.
Purchase amount
KRW 100m- 삼표산업KRW 7.5T
- 현대제철Price comovement r=0.16 (1 year)KRW 6.1T
- SK에너지KRW 3T
- 이마트24KRW 1.1T
- 한솔에이앤에이KRW 210B
- 삼성웰스토리KRW 141.6B
Suppliers without disclosed amount
Financials at a glance
Kolon's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.
Who held it · filings
Filed recordA historical record from curated-guru 13F filings and DART 5%+ major-holding disclosures.
US 13F는 분기 공시이며 최대 45일 뒤 제출될 수 있습니다.
5%+ major-holding disclosures
- 이웅열52.38%2026-05-12 · 증감 -0.22%p
Recent filings
Kolon's latest filings on Korea's DART. Open a headline for a reference summary and the original.
Source: DART (Korea electronic disclosure)
Signal history (last ~2 years)
Every occurrence on this stock, with the return 20 trading days later. Small sample — a record, not a prediction.
Strong buy (52w high + volume)×3
26-05-08-43.1%26-04-29-26.8%26-03-27-13.6%
52-week high breakout×2
26-05-08-43.1%26-04-29-26.8%
New MA alignment×3
26-04-29-26.8%26-04-07+9.9%26-03-27-13.6%
“·” = fewer than 20 trading days since the event. Cup-and-handle entries are days our board actually showed the badge (archive grows daily since 2026-05-12); others are recomputed from price data.
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