매출 하락 → 마진 압박 → 현금 악화
Critical매출이 -3.4% 감소하며 영업이익률이 8.9%에서 8.0%로 하락했다. 영업현금흐름도 동반 감소하여 수익-현금 순환이 약화되고 있다.
Evidence
매출 YoY -3.4% (2023→2024)영업이익률 8.9%→8.0%영업CF 636→491
Columbia Sportswear
COLM-US · Nasdaq$59.38-5.43%
2026-07-31 closeColumbia Sportswear — pricey right now, or cheap? And what signals are flashing today?
Open the exact grade & valuation bands with Pro →Loading chart…
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1 guru reporting 13F holdings — Bridgewater (founded by Ray Dalio)AI Insight
Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly
Why this signalSignal guide
Cross
Death Cross (5_20, 0d ago)
Moving-average alignment
No
Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction
Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (US market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)
Last 30 sessions
759 picks
Next-day win rate
58.8%
Avg next-day
+0.55%
vs market
+0.45%p
Beat the market on 57.6% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).
Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-30 27.3%07-29 30.8%07-28 11.1%07-27 50%07-24 28.6%07-23 44.4%07-22 50%07-21 60%07-20 33.3%07-17 37.5%07-16 16.7%07-15 50%
This stock flashed this signal 1 time over the last ~2 years (see the signal history below for each date).
Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.
Valuation Grades
Relative to 78 화장품,의류,완구 peers · not investment advice
Valuation in its own history
PER 14.48 · PBR 1.82 — own history (2000-01~) percentiles 81/100 · 82/100
PER81/100
PBR82/100
Higher indicates lower valuation relative to its history (based on earnings and book yields).
Earnings percentiles can fluctuate for cyclical companies (including loss periods), so the book basis is shown alongside. Companies with large share buybacks can have structurally high PBR. Factual information, not investment advice.
Annual dividend
Split-adjusted annual DPS history and available grade axes
Paid 20 consecutive years · Raised 0 consecutive years · Yield 2.02% (based on 2025 payment of $1.20) · 3-year growth +0.0%
Per-share amount adjusted for splits and capital reductions · Factual information, not investment advice.
Financial safety
Reference indicatorAs of 2024Safe zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 6.93
Distress
Grey
Safe
- Altman Z''
- 6.93
- Beneish M-Score
- -2.82
- Sloan accrual
- -9.00%
No statistical flag
부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Why has this company moved this way?
Auditable observations with the original numeric evidence.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score
4/9Moderate
Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.
Financial improvement score4/9
Profitability
- Positive ROAPass
- Positive OCFPass
- Improving ΔROANot passed
- Accruals (OCF > net income)Pass
Leverage & liquidity
- Lower debtNot passed
- Higher current ratioNot passed
- No new sharesNot passed
Efficiency
- Higher gross marginPass
- Higher asset turnoverNot passed
Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사
Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Industry structure
USAs of 2026-08-03화장품,의류,완구
This stock is in 화장품,의류,완구: revenue rank 22 of 73, share 1.4%.
22 / 731.4%revenue share
Who dominates this industry?
- 1Nike Class B19.7%
- 2Whirlpool7.1%
- 3lululemon athletica4.5%
- 4Thor Industries4.1%
- 5VF4%
- 6Columbia Sportswear1.4%
Concentration
DistributedCR3 31.3%HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.
Polarization
MixedConsistentPolarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.
Margin lens
- IQR%p
- 10.43
- Direction
- 확대
- Level
- 보통
- Years
- 9
Value lens
- P90/P10
- 16
- Median P/B
- 1.02
- Level
- 넓음
- n
- 70
Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)
Factual information, not investment advice.
Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions
Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.
Base metrics
- Operating margin
- 8%
- Interest coverage
- 5.7x
- Return on equity (ROE)
- 12.5%
Operating margin −5pp
Severe margin pressureInterest coverageBase 5.7x adverse case 2.2x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 12.5% adverse case 3.1%
Revenue −15%
TolerableInterest coverageBase 5.7x adverse case 4.8x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 12.5% adverse case 10.3%
Interest rate +2pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 5.7x adverse case 3.8x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 12.5% adverse case 11.2%
Interest coverage limit
Current margin 6.6ppInterest coverage limit at an operating margin of 1.4%
Interest expense coverage threshold
Financials at a glance
Columbia Sportswear's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.
Who held it · filings
Filed recordA historical record from curated-guru 13F filings and DART 5%+ major-holding disclosures.
US 13F는 분기 공시이며 최대 45일 뒤 제출될 수 있습니다.
Curated gurus reporting this holding
A curated subset of well-known investors — not the full institutional ownership.
- Bridgewater Associates3,833주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
Connections
AI-extracted related companies · for reference
Suppliers
GORE-TEXYKK
Customers
Recent filings
Filings for overseas stocks are on the way. For now we cover Korean stocks only.
Signal history (last ~2 years)
Every occurrence on this stock, with the return 20 trading days later. Small sample — a record, not a prediction.
Strong buy (52w high + volume)×1
26-06-18-7.6%
52-week high breakout×2
26-05-28-4.8%26-05-27-3.8%
New MA alignment×4
26-06-18-7.6%26-06-11-4.3%26-06-09-3.2%26-05-22+0.9%
“·” = fewer than 20 trading days since the event. Cup-and-handle entries are days our board actually showed the badge (archive grows daily since 2026-05-12); others are recomputed from price data.
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