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Ares Capital

ARCC-US · Nasdaq
$18.76-0.37%
2026-07-31 close

Ares Capital — what's the grade? And what signals are flashing today?

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AI Insight

Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly

Why this signalSignal guide

Moving-average alignment
No

No active signal.

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Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction

Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (US market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)

Last 30 sessions
759 picks
Next-day win rate
58.8%
Avg next-day
+0.55%
vs market
+0.45%p

Beat the market on 57.6% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).

Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-30 27.3%07-29 30.8%07-28 11.1%07-27 50%07-24 28.6%07-23 44.4%07-22 50%07-21 60%07-20 33.3%07-17 37.5%07-16 16.7%07-15 50%
This stock has not flashed this signal recently — the record above is the signal’s own, not this stock’s.

Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.

Valuation Grades

Relative to 55 finance peers · not investment advice

Pro unlocks the composite grade, 5 factors and sector rank · ₩19,900/mo

Financial safety

Reference indicatorAs of 2024
Grey zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 1.39
Distress
Grey
Safe
The marker shows the current Z'' value within the displayed zones.
Altman Z''
1.39
Beneish M-Score
-1.06

Statistical manipulation-risk signal

Sloan accrual
12.92%

부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score

3/9Weak

Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.

Financial improvement score3/9

Profitability

  • Positive ROAPass
  • Positive OCFNot passed
  • Improving ΔROANot passed
  • Accruals (OCF > net income)Not passed

Leverage & liquidity

  • Lower debtPass
  • Higher current ratioNot passed
  • No new sharesPass

Efficiency

  • Higher gross marginNot passed
  • Higher asset turnoverNot passed

Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사

Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Forensic signals

Anomaly and structural signals observed in the financial statements.

Revenue qualityDanger

매출 흑자인데 영업CF 적자 (OCF/매출 -71%). 통계적 정황 신호이며 회계부정 단정이 아닙니다.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Industry structure

USAs of 2026-08-03

finance

This stock is in finance: revenue rank 3 of 31, share 18.5%.

3 / 3118.5%revenue share

Who dominates this industry?

  1. 1Cboe Global Markets25.3%
  2. 2LION-US19.8%
  3. 3Ares Capital18.5%
  4. 4FS KKR Capital10.6%
  5. 5Prospect Capital4.4%

Concentration

ModerateCR3 63.5%
HHI 1,54231 revenue members

HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.

Polarization

MixedConsistent

Polarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.

Margin lens

IQR%p
9.83
Direction
축소
Level
보통
Years
7

Value lens

P90/P10
85
Median P/B
6.16
Level
넓음
n
5

Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)

Factual information, not investment advice.

Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions

Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.

Base metrics

Operating margin
48.9%
Interest coverage
24.4x
Return on equity (ROE)
11.4%

Operating margin −5pp

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 24.4x adverse case 21.9x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 11.4% adverse case 9.4%

Revenue −15%

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 24.4x adverse case 20.7x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 11.4% adverse case 8.9%

Interest rate +2pp

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 24.4x adverse case 4.1x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 11.4% adverse case 8.3%

Interest coverage limit

Current margin 46.9pp

Interest coverage limit at an operating margin of 2%

Interest expense coverage threshold

Financials at a glance

Ares Capital's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.

Connections

AI-extracted related companies · for reference

🔗 See in the full market map →

📦 ETFs holding this stock

by weight · top-10 constituents basis

Passive money holding this stock ≈ $270M(lower bound — top-10 basis, not a forecast)

Factual holdings info from daily disclosures — not a recommendation.

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Recent filings

Filings for overseas stocks are on the way. For now we cover Korean stocks only.

Signal history (last ~2 years)

Every occurrence on this stock, with the return 20 trading days later. Small sample — a record, not a prediction.

New MA alignment×3
26-07-27·26-07-17·26-07-02+0.2%

“·” = fewer than 20 trading days since the event. Cup-and-handle entries are days our board actually showed the badge (archive grows daily since 2026-05-12); others are recomputed from price data.

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