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Golub Capital BDC

GBDC-US · Nasdaq
$12.83-0.08%
2026-07-31 close

Golub Capital BDC — pricey right now, or cheap? And what signals are flashing today?

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AI Insight

Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly

Why this signalSignal guide

Moving-average alignment
No

No active signal.

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Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction

Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (US market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)

Last 30 sessions
759 picks
Next-day win rate
58.8%
Avg next-day
+0.55%
vs market
+0.45%p

Beat the market on 57.6% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).

Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-30 27.3%07-29 30.8%07-28 11.1%07-27 50%07-24 28.6%07-23 44.4%07-22 50%07-21 60%07-20 33.3%07-17 37.5%07-16 16.7%07-15 50%
This stock has not flashed this signal recently — the record above is the signal’s own, not this stock’s.

Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.

Valuation Grades

Relative to 97 증권 peers · not investment advice

Pro unlocks the composite grade, 5 factors and sector rank · ₩19,900/mo

Valuation in its own history

PER 13.01 · PBR 0.89 — own history (2010-04~) percentiles 74/100 · 92/100

PER74/100
PBR92/100

Higher indicates lower valuation relative to its history (based on earnings and book yields).

Earnings percentiles can fluctuate for cyclical companies (including loss periods), so the book basis is shown alongside. Companies with large share buybacks can have structurally high PBR. Factual information, not investment advice.

Annual dividend

Split-adjusted annual DPS history and available grade axes

Annual dividend per share chart2010: $0.84720102011: $1.262012: $1.262013: $1.262014: $1.262015: $1.2620152016: $1.512017: $1.342018: $1.382019: $1.402020: $1.1920202021: $1.172022: $1.232023: $1.512024: $1.932025: $1.56$1.562025
Annual dividend (per share · split-adjusted) · as of 2025
Consistency
B+
Growth
B+
Yield
A+
Safety
B
Reference indicatorView observed cut rates

Paid 16 consecutive years · Raised 0 consecutive years · Yield 12.16% (based on 2025 payment of $1.56) · 3-year growth +8.2%

Per-share amount adjusted for splits and capital reductions · Factual information, not investment advice.

Financial safety

Reference indicatorAs of 2025
Grey zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 1.12
Distress
Grey
Safe
The marker shows the current Z'' value within the displayed zones.
Altman Z''
1.12
Beneish M-Score
-2.18

No statistical flag

Sloan accrual
5.46%

부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score

4/9Moderate

Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.

Financial improvement score4/9

Profitability

  • Positive ROAPass
  • Positive OCFNot passed
  • Improving ΔROAPass
  • Accruals (OCF > net income)Not passed

Leverage & liquidity

  • Lower debtNot passed
  • Higher current ratioNot passed
  • No new sharesPass

Efficiency

  • Higher gross marginNot passed
  • Higher asset turnoverPass

Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사

Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Forensic signals

Anomaly and structural signals observed in the financial statements.

Revenue qualityDanger

매출 흑자인데 영업CF 적자 (OCF/매출 -13%). 통계적 정황 신호이며 회계부정 단정이 아닙니다.

Margin trendWarning

영업이익률 악화 (52.9% → 45.6%, -7.4%p). 통계적 정황 신호이며 회계부정 단정이 아닙니다.

Factual information, not investment advice.

Industry structure

USAs of 2026-08-03

증권

This stock is in 증권: revenue rank 50 of 80, share 0.1%.

50 / 800.1%revenue share

Who dominates this industry?

  1. 1StoneX Group17.4%
  2. 2Goldman Sachs Group16.7%
  3. 3Morgan Stanley14.1%
  4. 4BROOKFIELD A (NYS)11.3%
  5. 5Charles Schwab3.4%
  6. 6Golub Capital BDC0.1%

Concentration

DistributedCR3 48.1%
HHI 97380 revenue members

HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.

Polarization

Winner-take-all deepeningConsistent

Polarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.

Margin lens

IQR%p
58.06
Direction
확대
Level
넓음
Years
7

Value lens

P90/P10
18
Median P/B
3.72
Level
넓음
n
65

Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)

Factual information, not investment advice.

Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions

Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.

Base metrics

Operating margin
45.6%
Interest coverage
19.7x
Return on equity (ROE)
9.5%

Operating margin −5pp

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 19.7x adverse case 17.6x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 9.5% adverse case 8.4%

Revenue −15%

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 19.7x adverse case 16.8x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 9.5% adverse case 8%

Interest rate +2pp

Tolerable
Interest coverageBase 19.7x adverse case 3.3x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 9.5% adverse case 6.9%

Interest coverage limit

Current margin 43.3pp

Interest coverage limit at an operating margin of 2.3%

Interest expense coverage threshold

Financials at a glance

Golub Capital BDC's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.

Connections

AI-extracted related companies · for reference

🔗 See in the full market map →

📦 ETFs holding this stock

by weight · top-10 constituents basis

Passive money holding this stock ≈ $25M(lower bound — top-10 basis, not a forecast)

Factual holdings info from daily disclosures — not a recommendation.

Look up another stock →

Recent filings

Filings for overseas stocks are on the way. For now we cover Korean stocks only.

Signal history (last ~2 years)

Every occurrence on this stock, with the return 20 trading days later. Small sample — a record, not a prediction.

Golden cross×1
26-06-01-1.1%
New MA alignment×3
26-06-10+0.3%26-06-04+0.1%26-06-01-1.1%

“·” = fewer than 20 trading days since the event. Cup-and-handle entries are days our board actually showed the badge (archive grows daily since 2026-05-12); others are recomputed from price data.

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