매출 성장 + 마진 확대 + FCF 양수
Positive매출이 +10.1% 성장하면서 영업이익률이 13.7%에서 14.2%로 확대되었다. FCF도 양수를 유지하여 질적 성장이 확인된다.
Evidence
매출 YoY +10.1%영업이익률 13.7%→14.2%FCF 246
Taylor Morrison Home
TMHC-US · New York Stock Exchange$72.45+0.00%
2026-07-27 closeTaylor Morrison Home — pricey right now, or cheap? And what signals are flashing today?
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1 guru reporting 13F holdings — Bridgewater (founded by Ray Dalio)AI Insight
Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly
Strong-buy signal — the real recordrecord · not a prediction
Not this one stock, but every strong-buy pick we actually published (US market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-03)
Last 30 sessions
759 picks
Next-day win rate
58.8%
Avg next-day
+0.55%
vs market
+0.45%p
Beat the market on 57.6% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).
Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
07-30 27.3%07-29 30.8%07-28 11.1%07-27 50%07-24 28.6%07-23 44.4%07-22 50%07-21 60%07-20 33.3%07-17 37.5%07-16 16.7%07-15 50%
This stock flashed this signal 3 times over the last ~2 years (see the signal history below for each date).
Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.
Valuation Grades
Relative to 108 건설,건축관련 peers · not investment advice
Valuation in its own history
PER 8.02 · PBR 1.21 — own history (2013-04~) percentiles 67/100 · 57/100
PER67/100
PBR57/100
Higher indicates lower valuation relative to its history (based on earnings and book yields).
Earnings percentiles can fluctuate for cyclical companies (including loss periods), so the book basis is shown alongside. Companies with large share buybacks can have structurally high PBR. Factual information, not investment advice.
Financial safety
Reference indicatorAs of 2024Safe zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 4.17
Distress
Grey
Safe
- Altman Z''
- 4.17
- Beneish M-Score
- -1.99
- Sloan accrual
- 7.24%
No statistical flag
부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Why has this company moved this way?
Auditable observations with the original numeric evidence.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score
7/9Strong
Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.
Financial improvement score7/9
Profitability
- Positive ROAPass
- Positive OCFPass
- Improving ΔROAPass
- Accruals (OCF > net income)Not passed
Leverage & liquidity
- Lower debtPass
- Higher current ratioNot passed
- No new sharesPass
Efficiency
- Higher gross marginPass
- Higher asset turnoverPass
Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사
Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Industry structure
USAs of 2026-07-29건설,건축관련
This stock is in 건설,건축관련: revenue rank 18 of 108, share 1.5%.
18 / 1081.5%revenue share
Who dominates this industry?
- 1Lennar A6.6%
- 2D R Horton6.4%
- 3Ferguson5.8%
- 4Quanta Services4.4%
- 5Sherwin Williams4.3%
- 6Taylor Morrison Home1.5%
Concentration
DistributedCR3 18.8%HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.
Polarization
MixedDivergent lensesPolarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.
Margin lens
- IQR%p
- 5.41
- Direction
- 확대
- Level
- 좁음
- Years
- 8
Value lens
- P90/P10
- 12.9
- Median P/B
- 2.52
- Level
- 넓음
- n
- 100
Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)
Factual information, not investment advice.
Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions
Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.
Base metrics
- Operating margin
- 14.2%
- Interest coverage
- 4.2x
- Return on equity (ROE)
- 15.1%
Operating margin −5pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 4.2x adverse case 2.7x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 15.1% adverse case 8.1%
Revenue −15%
TolerableInterest coverageBase 4.2x adverse case 3.6x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 15.1% adverse case 12.1%
Interest rate +2pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 4.2x adverse case 3.4x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 15.1% adverse case 13.9%
Interest coverage limit
Current margin 10.8ppInterest coverage limit at an operating margin of 3.3%
Interest expense coverage threshold
Financials at a glance
Taylor Morrison Home's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.
Who held it · filings
Filed recordA historical record from curated-guru 13F filings and DART 5%+ major-holding disclosures.
US 13F는 분기 공시이며 최대 45일 뒤 제출될 수 있습니다.
Curated gurus reporting this holding
A curated subset of well-known investors — not the full institutional ownership.
- Bridgewater Associates19,763주2026-03-31 · 증감 0주
Recent filings
Filings for overseas stocks are on the way. For now we cover Korean stocks only.
Signal history (last ~2 years)
Every occurrence on this stock, with the return 20 trading days later. Small sample — a record, not a prediction.
Strong buy (52w high + volume)×3
26-07-23·26-06-09+0.2%26-06-01+0.3%
Golden cross×1
26-06-17+0.8%
New MA alignment×5
26-07-16·26-07-10·26-07-08·26-07-02·26-06-24+0.7%
“·” = fewer than 20 trading days since the event. Cup-and-handle entries are days our board actually showed the badge (archive grows daily since 2026-05-12); others are recomputed from price data.
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